Filip Bondy is like the football commentator who says halfway through the fourth quarter that the trailing team 'has to score here to get back in this game,' then the team fails to score there but comes back to win later. He wrote in the daily news that the USA had to beat Slovenia to stay alive. We all know what happened, and the USA is still very much alive.
Fact is, the USA is not only in great shape to advance, but also to win the group. Contrary to Bondy's reflexive negativity, the USA is probably the most likely team to win the group outright. The only way the USA does not have a chance to win the group is if Slovenia defeats England, an outcome that while quite possible is unlikely. The English side has too much quality to continue playing punchless football. A draw is the worst result likely for England. If England and Slovenia draw, a US win over Algeria will put USA top of the group unless Slovenia scores more goals than USA scores. Highly unlikely the Slovenes will pull that off if the USA is winning its game.
If England beats Slovenia, it will depend on goal differential. If USA defeats Algeria by more than England defeats Slovenia, then the USA wins the group, and vice versa. If the margins of victory are the same, USA wins the group unless England scores 2 more goals than USA scores. Again, highly unlikely.
Basically, if USA beats Algeria by two goals, that will probably make USA the group winner. Winning a WC group will be a step forward for US Soccer, regardless of what happens in the knockout stages. It will also set USA up for a deeper tournament run.
I feel good about this USA team, and think this is going to be a special Cup for America. In fact, I am predicting a SEMI-FINAL appearance! Yes, I am irrationally exuberant, but with reason. I love the heart of this team and believe that they will catapult from the Slovenia injustice to a series of good performances. We have seen that the USA can beat and compete with the BEST when playing at our best. I believe that Landon Donovan, Tim Howard, Carlos Bocanegra and Michael Bradley will will this team to strong performances from here on out. Cup history is replete with deep runs from teams that struggled early in group play.
This team has ability. Jozy Altidore is going to score some big goals. Landon Donovan is a world-class elite player, and he is finally in his prime. Remember, he was the outstanding player of the U-17 World Cup back in the day, and that tournament featured some names that are among the pantheon of today's pros. Bradley is the type of young, up-and-coming professionals who make their bones in the World Cup. He's a tremendous player and will prove it. He has more big goals in him. Clint Dempsey is able to make magic. We are coming into our own as an attacking team.
Defense is the problem, and I would pin it at concentration. Our guys have not been able to bring the constant focus that is required for defense. I think the Slovenia game will focus our men. Nothing like a sense of having been wronged to motivate men. If our defense prevents the lapses in coverage, Howard will deliver clean sheets.
Fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride. A 3-0 thumping of Algeria will put the USA on top of the group, and into the round of 16 against Ghana or Serbia. I want Ghana. I want revenge for that 2006 travesty. After that, one upset win of a more favored team puts us in the semifinals where a true contender subdues us in a taut, thrilling match that leaves US fans thirsting for more.
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