Iran: Losing by Winning

It appears that the power structure has successfully put down the election dissent and destroyed the opposition. They have won the battle with brutal and unflinching repression, but have they lost the war? As averred in an earlier blog, successful repression often just drives dissent underground and undermines public respect and affection for the law. When the dissent was driven by a core population group and involved enduring issues, the successful repression frequently strengthens opposition in the long run. Will that turn out to be the case in Iran?

Take this tidbit from an International Herald Tribure article about Iran and the collapse of dissent:

Like many others who spoke, Mahtab said she was depressed by what she had
seen since the election. She said that she was not a political person and had
not even voted June 12, but that the repression on the streets was “beyond
belief.”

“I am disgusted, and wish I could leave this country,” she said.

She said she had seen a paramilitary officer outside the shop hit a
middle-aged woman in the head so hard that blood streamed down the woman’s
forehead. When Mahtab and her colleagues tried to leave the shop to go
home, she said, the forces began clubbing them while shouting the names of
Shiite saints. “They do this under the name of religion,” she said. “Which
religion allows this?”

Daily life has also been affected. Although people are still going to
work, some parents have been reluctant to take their children to day care,
fearing that unrest on the streets would prevent them from picking up their
children. University exams have been postponed and many families have traded
parties for small get-togethers, where the election is a constant topic of
conversation.

“People are depressed, and they feel they have been lied to, robbed of
their rights and now are being insulted,” said Nassim, a 56-year-old
hairdresser. “It is not just a lie; it’s a huge one. And it doesn’t end.”

Mahtab and Nassim must be American agents or sympathizers, if the Iranian government is to be believed. No, they are ordinary Iranians who were not involved in demonstrations or even sympathetic to the opposition, but they are shocked and dismayed by what they witnessed their government do to people they know are ordinary Iranians. The government believes it can discredit the dissent by blaming it on "outside agitators", that tired old refrain, but do you think it will fool Mahtab and Nassim?

The next time dissent breaks out in Iran, a whole lot of Mahtabs and Nassims will be more likely to support the dissent, either tacitly or actively. It may not look like it now, but the Islamic Republic's legitimacy within Iran has been damaged more by its victory in battle than by the issues that sparked the protest.